AI’s Energy Appetite to Match Japan’s Entire Electricity Use by 2030

AI’s Growing Demand on Global Power Grids

Artificial intelligence is already putting significant pressure on power grids worldwide, and this trend is expected to intensify dramatically over the next decade. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2030, AI data centers will consume nearly as much electricity as the entire country of Japan currently does.

Current and Future Electricity Consumption by Data Centers

At present, data centers use about 1.5% of global electricity, which amounts to roughly 415 terawatt hours (TWh) annually. The IEA forecasts this figure to more than double to nearly 950 TWh by 2030, accounting for close to 3% of worldwide electricity consumption.

The Role of Specialized AI Hardware

The surge in electricity demand is primarily driven by specialized AI hardware known as accelerated servers. The electricity consumption of these servers is projected to grow by an astonishing 30% annually through 2030, far outpacing the 9% annual growth rate of conventional servers.

Massive Scale of New Data Centers

Some new data centers under construction are expected to consume as much electricity as 2 million average homes, with future projects potentially using the equivalent power of 5 million or more homes. Certain data centers may even consume power comparable to that used by over 4 million households.

Regional Disparities in Data Center Energy Use

The distribution of data center electricity consumption varies widely by region. By 2030, data centers in the United States are predicted to use about 1,200 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person — roughly 10% of the average household’s annual consumption, and an order of magnitude higher than any other region globally. In contrast, Africa’s per-person consumption will remain minimal at around 2 kWh.

In some regions, data centers already consume substantial portions of electricity. Ireland’s data centers use about 20% of the nation’s electricity. In six U.S. states, data centers account for more than 10% of electricity usage, with Virginia’s share reaching 25%.

Renewable Energy and the Future Energy Mix

Despite concerns that AI’s growing energy demands could jeopardize climate goals, the IEA suggests these worries may be exaggerated. Nearly half of the additional electricity required by data centers through 2030 is expected to come from renewable energy sources, though fossil fuels will remain significant contributors.

The energy mix varies by region: today, coal fuels nearly 70% of data centers in China; in the United States, natural gas leads at 40%, followed by renewables at 24%.

The Role of Nuclear and Emerging Technologies

Looking beyond 2030, small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) could play a crucial role in meeting AI’s energy needs. Major tech companies like OpenAI are planning to invest in over 20 gigawatts of SMR capacity, reflecting a focus on long-term energy security. Microsoft has even proposed reviving the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant.

Scenarios for AI’s Energy Future

The IEA outlines several scenarios for future AI energy consumption. Under the “Lift-Off” scenario, which assumes widespread adoption of accelerated AI technologies, global data center electricity demand could reach over 1,700 TWh by 2035 — about 45% higher than baseline projections.

Alternatively, the “High Efficiency” scenario envisions advances in software, hardware, and infrastructure reducing energy consumption by more than 15% while maintaining AI performance. If AI adoption faces obstacles, energy usage could be considerably lower.

Balancing Power and Efficiency

The coming decade will be critical in balancing AI’s power demands with energy efficiency improvements. How the technology sector navigates this challenge will influence not only AI’s future but also its potential impact on the global climate crisis.